Thursday, July 26, 2007

Is it Hotter or Colder? The Boy is Crying Wolf Again

I noticed two diametrically opposed things today. One is a report from PIRG (Public Interest Research Group, a noble sounding name for a leftist organization founded in the 1960's by Ralph Nader) that claims that "Nevada is among the states with the most dramatic increase in average temperatures the last 30 years, according to a new study that examines the impact of global warming across the country."

The other is a graph from NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospoheric Administration, part of the US Department of Commerce, the "weather people", that shows the average temperature in Las Vegas for the past six decades. Specificallly, the average in the 1940"s was 81.3 degrees, and in the 1990's, 79.9 degrees. Yes, in 1960's it was 79.2, the 1970's 79.7, but for the past two decades, it has remained static, at 79.9.

At about the same time, I noticed a news report by hurricane forecasters revising downward their prediction for the current hurricane season.

Forecaster reduces 2007 hurricane prediction
Published on Thursday, July 26, 2007
By Kelly Riddell

WASHINGTON, USA (Bloomberg): WSI Corp., a weather-forecasting company, has reduced the number of hurricanes it's predicting this year because of cooler-than-expected water temperatures in the North Atlantic.

The 2007 season is expected to deliver a total of six hurricanes, instead of the eight previously forecast, Andover, Massachusetts-based WSI said. An average season yields six. The 2005 season, which brought Katrina, Rita and billions of dollars in damage, generated a record 15 hurricanes.

"Sea-surface temperatures really haven't warmed like they normally do this time of year," WSI senior meteorologist Jim Klein said in an interview. "We can't pinpoint any specific reason, but we're not seeing the tropical development like we've anticipated."

This is in start contrast to the advisory given in April predicting a "very active" 2007 Hurricane Season.

By Andrea Thompson, LiveScience Staff Writer
posted: 03 April 2007 10:07 am ET

The Atlantic basin will likely see a very active hurricane season this year, though not as active as in 2004 and 2005, according to a well-known Colorado State University forecasting team.

"The activity of these two years was unusual, but within the natural bounds of hurricane variation," said hurricane forecasting guru William Gray, who issued his first seasonal forecast 24 years ago.

The latest forecast upgrades the team's earlier predictions for the 2007 hurricane season. The team now expects 17 named storms to form in the Atlantic, with nine of those storms becoming hurricanes. Five of the hurricanes are expected to develop into major storms (Categories 3, 4, and 5 on the Saffir-Simpson scale) with wind speeds of 111 mph or greater.

The earlier 2007 forecast estimated 14 named storms and 3 hurricanes.

Now, what is the average person supposed to think after continually reading such contradictory information in the MSM? Are there no experts? Are the "experts" just guessing? Does politics play a part in predictions and press releases? No Sh&* Sherlock.

The unfortunate result of this "crying wolf" is that the public is turning a deaf ear to the science community. The entire global warming "debate" is a case in point. Scientist with axes to grind and jobs to keep will suck up to whatever political entity seems to be gaining the upper hand. No ordinary citizen with a smattering of science education and no access to the lastest technological analysis will be able to make heads or tales of any scientific situation that faces him.

One of the worst developments of the last few decades has been the politicization of science. Theories have replaced fact. Computer models have been taken as gospel. Few people in the MSM acknowledge the fact that the nature of climate is a composite of so many variables, both within and without our humble atmosphere, and far beyond our "poor power to add or detract" that an accurate computer model is a figment of some scientist's and his political agenda's imagination.

It is so very disheartening.

No comments: